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adversarial view advising and technical agency problem American & Caribbean annual change annual supervision Bank's borrower actions borrower objectives change in performance consultant supervision correlation cumulative supervision Development Finance Corporations disbursement Early Supervision East & North expected change expected economic rate final performance ratings final ratings funds GDP deflator GDP per Capita Heteroskedasticity impact of supervision incentive influence Interim Performance Estimation interim performance ratings interim ratings lending level of supervision likelihood function loan amount macroeconomic management advising marginal North Africa observations Operations Evaluation Department ordered probit Partial Autocorrelations percent percentage performance equation planned implementation period principal-agent project characteristics project completion project implementation project performance project plan rate of return region and sector sample Section significant simulated staff supervision staff weeks Structural Adjustment Loan supervision allocation equation supervision on performance Table technical assistance transition Transportation and Tourism variables World Bank staff World Bank supervision