Evaluating the Reliability of Predictions Made Using Environmental Transfer Models, Issue 96Provides guidance on the available methods for evaluating the reliability of environmental transfer model predictions. The publication provides an introduction to the subject, and particular emphasis has been given to worked examples in the text. It is Intended to supplement existing IAEA publications on environmental assessment methodology. |
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Page 59
... subjective confidence limits and intervals at a high ( ≥95 % ) subjective confidence level . The confidence limits and / or the end points of the confi- dence intervals are given by corresponding fractiles of the subjective probability ...
... subjective confidence limits and intervals at a high ( ≥95 % ) subjective confidence level . The confidence limits and / or the end points of the confi- dence intervals are given by corresponding fractiles of the subjective probability ...
Page 61
International Atomic Energy Agency. and the intervals , for instance : " At a subjective confidence level of 95 % the value to be predicted is between Y2.5 and y97.5 ' ,, 14 where y95 , Y2.5 and y97.5 are the 95 % , 2.5 % and 97.5 ...
International Atomic Energy Agency. and the intervals , for instance : " At a subjective confidence level of 95 % the value to be predicted is between Y2.5 and y97.5 ' ,, 14 where y95 , Y2.5 and y97.5 are the 95 % , 2.5 % and 97.5 ...
Page 65
... subjective confidence level at which the value to be predicted 18 is within a specified range or is in compli- ance with a specified limiting value . Limiting values will be depicted as a limit line [ 51 ] . An example of a limit line ...
... subjective confidence level at which the value to be predicted 18 is within a specified range or is in compli- ance with a specified limiting value . Limiting values will be depicted as a limit line [ 51 ] . An example of a limit line ...
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Common terms and phrases
additive Appendix application approximate assessment question associated assumed average calculation called comparison computed concentration confidence interval confidence level confidence limit Consequently correlation coefficients corresponding degrees of belief depend derived determination deterministic dose effect environmental error estimate evaluate Example expert expression factor fractile function given important independent indicates individual interval knowledge larger logarithm lognormal mathematical mean value measure methods model prediction normal distribution Nuclear numerical observed obtained P.O. Box P₁ parameter uncertainty analysis parameter values partial performance population possible practical prediction value present probabilistic procedures produce propagation provides publication quantity quantity of interest radionuclides range rank reference unit release reliability respect Safety scenario selected simple random sample single situations specific standard deviation Step subjective probability distribution Table tion transformed true true value Type B uncertainty uncertain parameters validation variability variance