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American analysis April 1983 survey behavior billion causal coefficients cognition competency testing context effect correlations crime rates deficit ECONOMIC OUTLOOK USA egalitarian equations error estimates expected experience factors forecast fundamental attribution error group conflict heuristic income increase indicates individual inductive reasoning influence interactions interest rates interview Kahneman labor large numbers law of large marriage married measures ment mothers multiple roles National National Election Study Nisbett no-preference nonemployed omitted variable bias opposition to busing panel participation party identification percent police employment political population position prediction predictors present Psychology question racial attitudes relationship relevance reported represent representativeness heuristic responses restaurants sample sample space scale scored Scottish National Party sex-role attitudes significant social statistical reasoning status strategies stress subjects Survey Research symbolic racism paper Table teachers tion Tversky University of Michigan variables whites women