An Integrated Framework for Analysis of Water Supply Strategies in a Developing City: Chennai, India

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ProQuest, 2008 - 322 pages
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An integrative theoretical framework and model were developed to address the research goals. The integrated model was calibrated for the historical period 2002-2006 against extensive physical and socioeconomic data: groundwater heads, reservoir levels, household survey data in dry and wet years, tanker surveys, and operational statistics collected from the water utility. The calibration run of the model suggests that the 2003-2004 water crisis was precipitated by rational responses of the utility and Chennai consumers to limited reservoir capacity, unreliable inter-state water transfers, and limited capacity of the local aquifer. The research also explored scenarios of what the city's water supply may look like in 2025, using reasonable projections of population, land use and income growth. The historical rainfall record was used to generate scenarios of future rainfall. The 2025 model simulation provides two key insights. Firstly, a future drought is likely to at least as severe as the historical one. Increases in water use due to rising populations and incomes more than compensate for any reductions in peri-urban agricultural water extractions caused by to expanding urbanization. Second, a "dual-quality" approach to urban water supply may address Chennai's water problems. The dual-quality solution involves relying on centralized high-quality (and cost) supply for drinking, cooking and dishwashing while using lower quality (and cost) self-supplied groundwater for other non-potable needs.
  

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Contents

TABLE OF CONTENTS
1
List of Figures
3
Consumerscale demand studies
16
THE INTEGRATED WATER PARADIGM
29
The centralized water system Utilitycentric
30
List of Tables
43
Modular structure of integrated model
44
Effect of parameter changes under Efficiency Improvement scenario
57
Quantities used by consumer categories with different prior investments
140
CHENNAI 2025 BASELINE SCENARIO
143
Rainfall Scenario 1 Annual Rainfall in forecast period
146
Population density projection maps
151
CHENNAI 2025 POLICY SIMULATIONS
162
Summary results of the three policies
168
Model Parameter Changes for Supply Augmentation Policy
172
Consumer Surplus under Efficiency Improvement relative to Baseline
185

MODEL DEVELOPMENT PART I
59
Submodules and equations in Reservoir module
61
Linkages in Groundwater module
70
Cumulative distribution of depth of domestic wells
73
Submodules and Equations in Tanker module
77
MODEL DEVELOPMENT PART II
82
Water delivery by handpump and sumps
89
Submodules and Equations in Consumer Module
96
Tiered Supply Curve for Unconnected consumers
107
CHENNAIS WATER SYSTEM FROM 200206
118
Output variables of each module
119
Utility Supply Modeled
120
Large consumers are disproportionately affected by intermittency
133
Sensitivity of Rainfall Scenarios Rainwater Harvesting
197
Cost of supply to consumers
210
CHAPTER EIGHT SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS
213
APPENDIX B WELFARE ESTIMATION FORMULA DERIVATION
229
Appendix Figures
230
Appendix Tables
234
Contours of Thickness in meters of Bedrock Weathering
243
Crop water needs per season
247
Observed versus Calibrated Hydrograph PWD13235
256
APPENDIX E FRACTION OF WATER ALLOCATED TO CHENNAI
261
Liters per capita per day by source
269
APPENDIX H DEMAND ESTIMATION
287
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