Meeting Food Needs in the Developing World: The Location and Magnitude of the Task in the Next Decade

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Intl Food Policy Res Inst, 1976 - Developing countries - 64 pages
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Page 2 - ... improves in the future, production of cereals, the major food in most developing countries, will fall short of meeting food demand in food deficit countries by 95-108 million tons in 1985/86 depending on the rate of economic growth. This compares with shortfalls of 45 million tons in the food crisis year, 1974/75, and an average of 28 million tons in the relatively good production period, 1969/71- Asia accounts for some 50 percent of the total projected deficits, North Africa/Middle East about...
Page 2 - Unless the trend of production in DME countries improves in the future, production of cereals, the major food in most developing countries, will fall short of meeting food demand in food deficit countries by 95-108 million tons in 1985/86 depending on the rate of economic growth. This compares with shortfalls of 45 million tons in the food crisis year...
Page 2 - The core of the food problem is in the low income food deficit countries (ie, those with per capita incomes of less than $200) where 60 percent of DME population now live and where most of the Increase in population will come. They are projected to incur about half of the total deficit, some 42-48 million tons of cereal by 1985. To finance imports of such magnitude would appear to be beyond any prospect of these countries having the foreign exchange (to do so.
Page 2 - This report is concerned with the food needs of more than half the people on earth — those who live in developing countries classified as developing market economies (DME) , as distinct from those in the People's Republic of China and other Asian Centrally Planned economies. By 1985, their numbers will exceed 2.5 billion people, of whom 2.2 billion may well be living in food deficit countries, if production performance since I960 is repeated in the next decade. For most, their present situation...
Page 15 - Table 6 Growth rates: population and cereal production (percent per annum compounded) Country/Region Asia high income Asia low income: India Bangladesh Pakistan Indonesia Philippines Thailand Other Asia Total Asia low income Total Asia North Africa and Middle East OPEC Population Cereal production 1975-85 1967-74 1960-74a Required to meet deficit by 1985/86b 2.31 0.99 2.20 2.61 3.28 1.95 -0.98 2.42 2.00 Total Latin America Toted developing market economies 2.79 2.71 2.23 1.69 3.48 2.50 11.31 4.16...
Page 5 - ... million tons. Since the.se developing countries are likely to hold to commercial sales, their export surplus will represent a small part of the world supply of cereals available to both developed and developing purchasers . People's Republic of China 12. At the historical production growth rate of...
Page 4 - ... more satisfactory, increasing about 3 percent per year but has not kept up with demand for cereals In which feed Is of increasing importance. A rate of over 5 percent a year would be required to meet cereal market demand. While the total deficit is projected to rise from 17 million tons in...
Page 2 - ... deal with them, especially the issues of major importance to developing countries. The aim of the IFPRI research is to help clarify the problems and identify solutions to prevent the worsening of what Is already a serious problem In most of the developing countries . Dale E. Hathaway Director (388) Summary of Findings 1.
Page 2 - During the last half of that period, 1967-71!, the rate has slowed to 1.7 percent. This is too short a period and subject to too much variation from year to year to serve as a reliable base for projecting the future. Nevertheless the pervasiveness of the slackening in production for all regions and cereal crops (except for wheat In Asia...

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