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Forecasting with Econometric Models
Evaluation of Econometric Inventory Forecasts
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accuracy actual changes American Statistical Association analysis anticipations data book value cent changes in GNP compared components Constant Dollars consumption current dollars data revisions difference discrepancy disposable income Durable early data econometric forecasts econometric models Economic Forecasting evaluation ex ante forecasts ex post forecasts exogenous variables final data final figures fiscal forecast errors GNP data GNP estimates government expenditures government purchases Gross National Product indicated inventory equation inverse matrix judgmental forecasts Klein Klein model manufacturers mean absolute error mean square errors misestimates month month's data National Income Accounts Nondurable observed obtained occurred overestimated percentage period of fit plant and equipment Pmdicted predetermined variables predicted changes presented in Table procedure provisional data provisional estimates quarterly changes re-estimated regressions root mean square sample seasonally adjusted second anticipations second month's sector sets Statistical structural equations Theil third month's figures tion turning point errors U.S. Congress underestimates unfilled orders utilized Zarnowitz