Estimating Wartime Support Resource Requirements: Statistical and Related Policy Issues
The Air Force spends several billion dollars annually to procure the spare parts and other resources need to support modern aircraft weapon systems. A large fraction of this investment is used to obtain assets for support of wartime operations. The assumptions used to project peacetime experience to wartime activity levels have important resource implications, but little has been done to test them empirically. Peacetime operational experiments, coupled with engineering projections of wartime failure rates, could be used to test these assumptions and provide an improved basis for resource requirements computations. This note addresses statistical and policy issues central to improving estimates of wartime support resource requirements. It uses the current problem of establishing the level of investment in spare engines for the C-5 aircraft to elucidate a number of these issues. The results should be of interest to policymakers concerned with logistics resource allocation, operational commanders whose wartime capabilities are affected by statistical assumptions and related policy decisions, and personnel responsible for producing requirements estimates. Originator-supplied keywords include: spare parts, failure, logistics planning, military aircraft and aircraft engines.
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ESTIMATING WARTIME REMOVAL RATES
Airlift Analogies to the C5 Engine Requirements Problem
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age interval Air Force aircraft scheduling policies aircraft utilization average cycle length average sortie lengths avionics Bayesian changes conditional probability cycle density decrease described developed difference effects engine failure engine lifetime engine removal rate engine stress engine utilization engineering model estimating wartime expected exploratory data analysis exponential distribution failure modes failure rates flying program Foreign object damage hazard functions improved increase Kolmogorov-Smirnov test landings logistics parameter logrank test maintenance MTBR needed number of engines OPSEV MODEL parameter estimates peacetime experience peacetime operations percent pipeline plot Poisson process probability of removal problem of estimating records removal rate estimate repair requirements computations requirements estimates requirements problem sample scale parameter spare engines statistical stockage requirements strategic airlift support resource requirements SURVIVAL ANALYSIS survival curves survival probability TF39 engines throttle turbine engines utilization rates variability in peacetime Variance-to-mean ratios wartime demand rate wartime removal rate Weibull distribution