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Actual Base Run actual exchange rate agricultural and non-agricultural agricultural exports autocorrelation average tariff rate balance-of-payments Base Run Simulated capacity utilization capital flight capital stock Central Bank deficits consolidated public sector cost of imports CPSD DEFg deficits in million Devaluation X DIFF Dollar price index Dummy for 1986 dummy variable economic effects equation estimates exchange rate adjustments exogenous exports in million foreign debt payment foreign debt service foreign exchange GDP price deflator gross international reserves growth rate H-test import taxes imported inputs imports 1972 base index of imports million dollars million pesos monetary base national government deficit negatively related nominal GDP non-agricultural exports non-agricultural sector peso price index Philippine positively related price inflation public sector deficit ratio real credit real GDP real wages regressor Run Simulated Devaluation Run X Diff shadow price Stylized Facts tariffs and import taxes in million TL/P Total government revenue total liquidity trade deficit