Population updating system structures and models embedded within the Comprehensive Econometric Microsimulator for Urban Systems (CEMUS)
Naveen Eluru, Southwest Region University Transportation Center (U.S.), University of Texas at Austin. Center for Transportation Research
Southwest Region University Transportation Center, Center for Transportation Research, University of Texas at Austin, 2007 - Transportation - 32 pages
This report describes the development of a population update modeling system as part of the development of the Comprehensive Econometric Microsimulator for SocioEconomics, Land-use, and Transportation Systems (CEMSELTS). CEMSELTS itself is part of the Comprehensive Econometric Microsimulator for Urban Systems (CEMUS) under development at The University of Texas at Austin. The research in the report recognizes that modeling the linkages among demographics, land use, and transportation is important for realistic travel demand forecasting. The population update modeling system focuses on the modeling of events and actions of individuals and households in the urban region. An analysis framework is proposed to predict the future-year population characteristics by modeling the changes to all relevant attributes of the households and individuals. The models identified in the analysis framework are estimated for the Dallas-Fort Worth region. The econometric structures used include deterministic models, rate-based probability models, binary logit models, multinomial logit models, and ordered-response probit models. To verify the outputs from these models, the predicted results for the year 2000 are compared against observed 2000 Census data.
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altematives analysis framework Architectural & Environmental automobile ownership Bhat binary logit models CEMDAP CEMSELTS Model Census cohabiting Comprehensive Econometric Microsimulator decisions demographic Department of Civil determines the likelihood DFW area DFW survey data disaggregate-level drivers license econometric structures education level Ellis Johnson Eluru employed employment industry Environmental Engineering Evolution and Choice ﬁrst ﬂexibility ﬂows gender household formation models Household-level long households and individuals Housing tenure immigration implementation independent variables include Individual-level evolution land-use long-term choice models Microsimulator for SocioEconomics Microsimulator for Urban migration model system mobility model determines Model Model model Multinomial logit models identiﬁed move-ins move-out multinomial logit models Ordered probit Pinjari population socioeconomic population update modeling Population Updating System race Rate-based probability model residential choices school location simulation socioeconomic updating speciﬁc study region synthetic population Table Texas at Austin Transportation Systems CEMSELTS University of Texas update modeling system Urban Systems CEMUS visual C++ weekly work duration