History and Future: Using Historical Thinking to Imagine the Future
Perhaps the most important histiographic innovation of the twentieth century was the application of the historical method to wider and more expansive areas of the past. Where historians once defined the study of history strictly in terms of politics and the actions and decisions of Great Men, historians today are just as likely to inquire into a much wider domain of the past, from the lives of families and peasants, to more abstract realms such as the history of mentalities and emotions. Historians have applied their method to a wider variety of subjects; regardless of the topic, historians ask questions, seek evidence, draw inferences from that evidence, create representations, and subject these representations to the scrutiny of other historians. This book severs the historical method from the past altogether by applying that method to a domain outside of the past. The goal of this book is to apply history-as-method to the study of the future, a subject matter domain that most historians have traditionally and vigorously avoided. Historians have traditionally rejected the idea that we can use the study of history to think about the future. The book reexamines this long held belief, and argues that the historical method is an excellent way to think about and represent the future. At the same time, the book asserts that futurists should not view the future as a scientist might aiming for predictions and certainties but rather should view the future in the same way that an historian views the past."
What people are saying - Write a review
We haven't found any reviews in the usual places.
actual alter ampliative inferences Ankersmit argued behavior Bertrand de Jouvenel business space chapter Collingwood complex conceptual consider context counterfactual counterfactual history create creative Daniel Yergin describe discipline draw inferences driving forces economic effects Elliott Waves example explore futurists goal happen historians historical field historical imagination historical method historical representation historical statements historical thinking historyl human idea Irreality Lane and Maxfield language linear logic meaning mental map mind narios narrative Niall Ferguson Nicholas Rescher object ontological Ontological Uncertainty past patterns Peter Schwartz philosophers of history pieces of evidence plausible possible predict the future present questions reality relationship represent Rescher scenario method scenario space scenario thinking scenario writers scenarist science fiction scientific sense shape situation social societies specific stories structure subjunctive surprise thing tion torians trend line truth ture understand University Press Virtual History write York