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affect inflation asymmetry BHP BMV BSVAR change in inflation consumer price index conventional levels estimated coefficients estimating potential output evaluate excess demand F-tests forecast error forecast horizon forecast variance four-quarter-ahead gap is positive gap model HP and MV in-sample predictions included lagged terms including the change increase decrease indicator of inflationary inflation BHP BMV inflation is related inflation pressures inflation will increase inflation will tend inflationary pressures kurtosis Lagrange Multiplier Laxton level of inflation levels of significance linear model Model 1 Model monetary authority MV filters NAIRU null hypothesis one-quarter-ahead output gap appears past realisations percent level Phillips curve framework positive output gap quarterly data rate of unemployment real output Reserve Bank sample period serial correlation simple versions single equation speed limit effects statistical substantial uncertainty suggest supply shock SVAR and UC SVAR gap target tests the included trend UC gaps unemployment gap unit root unobserved components Variance decomposition Zealand zero