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acceptance rule accepted as evidence accepted as strongest accepted as true accepting H according agnosticism by true assert Bayes black balls Carnap ceteris paribus cognitive decision problems cognitive options cognitivism cognitivist commitments conclusions confirmation measures confirmation values confirming instances consideration considered consistent criteria decision theory decision-making deductive cogency deductive consequences degree of caution degrees of belief degrees of confidence dence desideratum discussion disjunction elements of Ue entails epistemic utility function Error H as strongest Hence inductive inference initially ultimate partition investigator justified Karl Popper Kyburg lottery maximal measure function notion observed Popper possible outcomes prediction presystematic probability assignments question R-values rejection level relative frequencies relevant answers relief from agnosticism replace agnosticism requirement sample scientific inquiry sentences accepted set of sentences simplicity skeptic specify statistical probability strongest sentence strongest via induction structure descriptions subjective probabilities tences theoretical theory tion tive true belief truth unrejected warrant