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Allais Paradox Amos Tversky analysis aversion to ambiguity Baruch Fischhoff chance to gain chance to lose choice problem Conjunction Fallacy contains 100 pieces Daniel Kahneman decision maker decision weights descriptive discounts dominance and invariance dominated option Duncan Luce Econometrica Economic Behavior eliminated Ellsberg example expected utility theory Fishburn formulations framing effects Framing of Decisions framing of outcomes green marbles GRGRRR Journal of Economic Kahneman and Tversky lose $15 Option Loss aversion Maurice Allais normative Observed preferences Paul Slovic percent percentage of red piece of paper preferences in Problems probability of winning produces violations prospect theory Psychology rational model reconciliation doctrine red and green respondents risk averse risk seeking Savage Axioms stochastic dominance sure loss Theory of Choice Tversky and Kahneman value and decision Values and Frames violate invariance violation of stochastic violations of dominance violations of invariance win $30 lose win $45 win yellow $0 win