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actual interest rate aggregates asset price bubble Bank of Japan basis points Bayoumi Bernanke bubble economy call-money rate Clarida collapse consumption tax increase CPI inflation debt declined deflationary slump downturn early economic activity effects estimated Taylor rule exchange rate Exhibit III.5 federal funds rate Federal Reserve System fiscal stimulus fitted interest rate FRB/Global model GDP growth Gertler growth rates inflation rates Institute for International International Monetary Fund Japan's experience Japanese economy Japanese fiscal policy Japanese monetary policy Kamin land prices liquidity trap long-term interest rates lower macroeconomic Mikitani monetary and fiscal monetary easing Nishiyama 2001 nominal interest rates OECD output gap panel of Exhibit Parallels to U.S. period policy interest rate policymakers Posen real GDP real interest rates reduced Reuters News Service revised data sector short-term interest rates simulations slowdown spending staff forecasts structural deficit substantial sustained tax cuts temporary transmission mechanism U.S. Experience year-average-over-year-average basis zero bound