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actual exchange rate Alberto Alesina Alexander Wagner analysis announce floating announced crawling announced peg Barro Bureau of Economic Calvo and Reinhart capture choice of exchange Choosing and reneging coefficient composite indices Control of corruption countries with superior crawling peg dataset democracy dependent variable descriptive statistics deviate from announcements Economic Research exchange rate arrangements exchange rate regimes fear of floating fear of pegging fixed exchange rate fixed rates foreign denominated labilities foreign liabilities governance indicators Government Effectiveness inflation institutional quality institutions display fear instructions inside iure Journal of Economics Kaufmann Kraay and Zoido-Lobaton Levy-Yeyati logit LYS classification macroeconomic Managed floating measures of institutional National Bureau NBER Working Paper Obstfeld Optimal Currency Areas papers in hard Partial Subscription poor institutional property rights quality of institutions regressions Rogoff RR classification rule of law Sturzenegger 2003 Sturzenegger and Reggio superior institutions Table trade World Bank