Historical Dynamics: Why States Rise and Fall

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Princeton University Press, 2003 - History - 245 pages
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Many historical processes are dynamic. Populations grow and decline. Empires expand and collapse. Religions spread and wither. Natural scientists have made great strides in understanding dynamical processes in the physical and biological worlds using a synthetic approach that combines mathematical modeling with statistical analyses. Taking up the problem of territorial dynamics--why some polities at certain times expand and at other times contract--this book shows that a similar research program can advance our understanding of dynamical processes in history.

Peter Turchin develops hypotheses from a wide range of social, political, economic, and demographic factors: geopolitics, factors affecting collective solidarity, dynamics of ethnic assimilation/religious conversion, and the interaction between population dynamics and sociopolitical stability. He then translates these into a spectrum of mathematical models, investigates the dynamics predicted by the models, and contrasts model predictions with empirical patterns. Turchin's highly instructive empirical tests demonstrate that certain models predict empirical patterns with a very high degree of accuracy. For instance, one model accounts for the recurrent waves of state breakdown in medieval and early modern Europe. And historical data confirm that ethno-nationalist solidarity produces an aggressively expansive state under certain conditions (such as in locations where imperial frontiers coincide with religious divides). The strength of Turchin's results suggests that the synthetic approach he advocates can significantly improve our understanding of historical dynamics.

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Sample Chapter for Turchin, P.: Historical Dynamics: Why States ...
Sample Chapter for Historical Dynamics: Why States Rise and Fall by Turchin, P., published by Princeton University Press.
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SATELLITE WORKSHOP PROPOSAL European Conference on Complex Systems ...
European Conference on Complex Systems 2006 (ECCS '06), Said Business School, University of Oxford, 25-29 September 2006. Principal organizer Doug White, ...
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Journal of Peace Research
Historical Dynamics: Why States Rise and Fall. http://jpr.sagepub.com. The online version of this article can be found at:. Published by: ...
jpr.sagepub.com/ cgi/ reprint/ 44/ 1/ 130.pdf?ck=nck

The Citizen Scientist
"Historical Dynamics: Why States Rise and Fall". Peter Turchin, Princeton University Press, 2003. Reviewed by Kevin T. Kilty ...
www.sas.org/ tcs/ weeklyIssues_2005/ 2005-03-11/ books/ index.html

Historical Dynamics: Why States Rise and Fall, by Peter Turchin. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press,. 2003. 241 pp. $35.00 cloth. ...
www.eeb.uconn.edu/ people/ turchin/ PDF/ Contemprary%20Sociology%20review.pdf

Causality of Network Configurations in Historical Dynamics: Some ...
Historical Dynamics: Why States Rise and Fall. Cambridge: Cambridge. University Press. —. Powerpoint slides, Santa Fe Institute Working Group on Analyzing ...
www.tfit-wg.ubi.pt/ globalization/ Paper_White.pdf

Plotting the downfall of society : Article : Nature
BOOK REVIEWED-Historical Dynamics: Why States Rise and Fall. by Peter Turchin. Princeton University Press: 2003. 264 pp. £22.95, $35 ...
www.nature.com/ nature/ journal/ v427/ n6974/ full/ 427488a.html

Peter Turchin - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Historical Dynamics: Why States Rise and Fall. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press. Turchin, P. 2003. Complex Population Dynamics: a ...
en.wikipedia.org/ wiki/ Peter_Turchin

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Empire of the sums | Science | The Guardian
In a controversial book, Peter Turchin outlines mathematical formulae for history's grandest narratives: the rise and fall of great civilisations
www.guardian.co.uk/ science/ 2005/ aug/ 25/ controversiesinscience

About the author (2003)

Peter Turchin is Professor of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology at the University of Connecticut. He is the author of Quantitative Analysis of Movement and Complex Population Dynamics (Princeton).

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