Decision Analysis: Introductory Lectures on Choices Under UncertaintyMonographic compilation of introductory lectures on decision making analysis under uncertainty - covers analysis of basic problems, uncertain payoffs and biased measurements, use of judgmental probability, samples and statistical analysis, risk sharing and group decisions, etc., and some further perspectives. Annotated bibliography pp. 298 to 300 and diagrams. |
Contents
Your Basic Problem | 1 |
Analysis of Your Basic Problem | 7 |
Summary and generalization | 33 |
Copyright | |
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Decision Analysis Introductory Lectures on Choices Under Uncertainty Howard Raiffa Snippet view - 1970 |
Common terms and phrases
02 is true analyze assume average basic problem Bayesian behavior branches C₁ chance forks Chapter choice choose a₁ conditional probability consequences consider cost decision analysis decision maker decision problem decision-flow diagram depend discuss draw e₁ EMV'er example expected utility expected value experimentation and action exponential utility Figure form of analysis gamble give given indifference curves individuals interval joint conditional evaluation judgmental probability label lectures likelihood function Likelihood Principle mathematical monetary non-EMV'er normal form obtain optimal strategy option outcome Pareto-optimal partition path probabilities payoffs perfect information possible posterior posterior probability prefer prior prob probability assessments probability assignments probability distribution procedure red ball sample share shown in Fig situation statistical strategy for experimentation Suppose Table theory tion tree true proportion type 01 uncertain quantities uncertainty unidentified urn utility curve utility function utility value zero