## The Oil ConundrumVolume 1 discusses aspects of oil depletion and the potential downward trajectory with respect to fossil fuel energy availability we have found ourselves on.Volume 2 discusses positive aspects of this crisis. What we can learn from studying oil depletion we can apply to potential new opportunities in renewable energy and in interacting with our environment. |

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### Contents

Decline | 1 |

The Problem | 13 |

The Premise | 19 |

The Facts in the Ground | 27 |

The Analysis Of Growth | 57 |

The Shock Model | 81 |

Finding Needles in a Haystack | 109 |

Applying Dispersive Discovery | 123 |

The Diagnosis | 335 |

The Implications | 351 |

The Prognosis | 357 |

Renewal | 373 |

Analysis and Behavioral Modeling | 385 |

Innovation and Evolution | 403 |

Reliability | 453 |

Solar Energy | 477 |

The Reserve Growth | 145 |

The Context of Discovery | 181 |

The Oil Production Process | 203 |

Summary of Analysis | 220 |

The Discussion | 267 |

Alternate Approaches | 285 |

Cornucopian Conundrums | 309 |

An Oil Level Check | 329 |

Wind Energy | 537 |

Travel | 547 |

Communications | 565 |

Environment | 577 |

Econophysics | 615 |

Bibliography | 697 |

Code | 719 |

### Common terms and phrases

accelerating actually amount analysis apply assume asymptote average basically bathtub curve becomes behavior billion barrels consider constant convolution cornucopians creaming curve crude oil cumulative damped exponential decline density function derivation describe diffusion discovery curve discovery data discovery profile disorder Dispersive Discovery model distribution drilling dynamics econophysics effect energy entropic dispersion equation EROEI essentially estimate exponential growth extraction rate factor fat-tail FIGURE finite Gaussian Gell-Mann global heuristic histogram Hubbert curve Hubbert Linearization increase intuitive Laherrere Logistic curve look math mathematical MaxEnt maximum entropy mean natural gas occur oil depletion oil discovery oil production oil reservoirs oil shock model parameter peak oil petroleum physical plot power-law predict probability density function problem production curve quadratic growth random reserve growth scale shocklet shows simple statistics stochastic tail theory tion U.S. Geological Survey uncertainty understand variable velocity volume