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1-month devaluation risk 2-standard deviation confidence aggregate balance Anming Zhang CityU Asian Financial Crisis Asian risk premium billion California and CityU California State University capital outflow central bank Chan Cheng HKUST CityU and University Convertibility Undertaking currency board system devalue the Hong deviation confidence bands empirical exclude P2 foreign reserves guarantee HIBOR and LIBOR high interest rate HK dollar HKMA HKMA's Hong Kong dollar Hong Kong Monetary Hong Kong University Hong Kong's currency interest differential interest rate arbitrage interest rate differential issuing Kong Monetary Authority Kong's currency board Kwan CityU Leonard LIBOR Lilian Kheng-lian measures Merton Miller polynomial put options risk and 2-standard risk premium speculative attacks Stock Market structured notes target zone model University of California University of Hong University of Science University of Victoria Weiying Zhang Peking Xueping Wu Yield curve Yield curve slope Yimin Zhang University Yin-wong Cheung University Zhang Peking University