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05 value 572 McFadden's Account/GDP analyze associated z-statistics attacks in foreign Bretton Woods system capital controls center country central bank channels of transmission coefficients competitiveness contagion effect contagious currency crises Contem convert into percentages credit growth crises elsewhere crisis currency peg current account depreciation devaluations domestic credit domestic currency economic Eichengreen empirical European Monetary System evidence of contagion expansionary factors foreign exchange markets gopher at nber.harvard.edu http://nber.harvard.edu included inflation international reserves investors Italian lira Lags Lags macro macro-weighted macroeconomic similarities macroeconomic variables maximum likelihood Mexican Mexican peso model of exchange monetary base multiple equilibria NBER Working Papers null Obstfeld Output Growth poraneous Probit slope derivatives provides quarter regressors relevant sample self-fulfilling attacks shock similar macroeconomic slope derivatives xlOO Slopes significantly different speculative attack elsewhere speculative attacks speculative pressure spread contagiously standard deviation Table Tequila Effect time-specific trade links trade-weighted unemployment unweighted z-statistics for hypothesis