Invisible in the Storm: The Role of Mathematics in Understanding Weather

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Princeton University Press, 2013 - Mathematics - 325 pages
2 Reviews

"With illuminating descriptions and minimal technicality, "Invisible in the Storm" provides a vivid historical perspective on how the development of mathematical ideas, together with modern computer technology, has completely transformed our ability to understand and predict the weather. This is a gripping and highly informative book."--Roger Penrose, author of "Cycles of Time: An Extraordinary New View of the Universe"

"As a TV weather forecaster for over forty years, I have always maintained that meteorology depends on mathematics for meaning. Making this conclusive point, "Invisible in the Storm" takes readers on an intriguing journey through the history of meteorology, revealing the critical role of mathematics from the earliest days of weather predicting to the current age of computer-generated forecasts. This book guides you inside the storm, where math's importance is clearly visible."--Spencer Christian, chief weather forecaster at ABC-7 News/KGO-TV, San Francisco

"This is a very readable account of why it is possible to forecast the weather with useful accuracy. Focusing on historical background, this well-researched and scientifically accurate book shows how the work of some of the greatest scientists of the past laid the foundations exploited in modern weather forecasting. I am not aware of any other book that covers this ground for a general scientific audience."--M. J. P. Cullen, author of "A Mathematical Theory of Large-Scale Atmosphere/Ocean Flow"

"The tremendous improvement in weather prediction capabilities during the twentieth century is among the greatest success stories of the scientific approach to the understanding of nature. Combining a historical account with a qualitative/geometric approach, this enjoyable book makes that story accessible to a wider scientifically educated audience."--Sebastian Reich, University of Potsdam

  

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Weather has always been one of the most consequential and most unpredictable aspects of our World. The importance of weather on all facets of human life cannot be underestimated. Storms and hurricanes can have a huge impact, and even less dramatic weather patterns (such as droughts) are of enormous significance. It is no surprise that people have been trying to predict weather for as long as there are any records of civilization, and perhaps for much longer. However, aside from some folk wisdom and very rough rules of thumb, until very recently predicting weather has been little more than guesswork. Things started changing towards the end of the nineteenth century, when a combination of better understanding of the laws of thermodynamics, fluid mechanics, and overall weather patters convinced many scientists that weather forecasting is, in principle, within the reach of the scientific method. Implementing that vision has been far from easy though, and that program has had many obstacles that it needed to overcome.
“Invisible in the Storm” is the story of the development of modern scientific meteorology. In particular, it tells the story about the importance of mathematics and its use in solving the problem of weather. It turns out that the equations that we use to model the weather are very complicated and complex, and at best we can hope to have very approximate solutions. Early advances in the mathematical weather modeling had to rely more on some shorthand and general principles that could be judiciously applied to some already observed situations. The full exact solution of the weather equations will probably elude us forever, and even approximate solutions are almost impossible to construct. This is partly due to the phenomenon of “chaos” that has in fact first been widely studied and appreciated exactly in the context of the weather.
The alternative to the exact solutions was to use the numerical methods in which smooth functions are replaced by their “pixelated” equivalents. Numerical methods reduce the extremely complicated differential equations with somewhat less complicated and manageable sets of algebraic equations. However, even the simplest numerical methods involve thousands of variables and equations, and early attempts to solve those were nothing short of heroic. Furthermore, the solutions of those early numerical attempts were disastrous in terms of their accuracy. Numerical methods only gained traction with the advent of computers, and only within the last couple of decades were we able to make reasonably accurate predictions that go beyond a single day.
This is a thoroughly well written and researched book. If you were unfamiliar with the content of mathematical research in meteorology it would be an incredibly valuable resource and an introduction to this subject. The authors clearly understand their subject, both in terms of its content as well as the rich and interesting history. All of the more mathematically advanced topics are covered in separate boxes throughout the main text, and if higher math is not something that you are familiar with you can safely skip those. Nonetheless, you should be fairly well educated and versed in the scientific method in order to fully appreciate this book.
 

Review: Invisible in the Storm: The Role of Mathematics in Understanding Weather

User Review  - Bogdan Antonescu - Goodreads

An excellent book on the history and role of mathematics in meteorology. Read full review

Contents

New Beginnings
1
THE FABRIC OF A VISION
3
FROM LORE TO LAWS
47
ADVANCES AND ADVERSITY
89
WHEN THE WIND BLOWS THE WIND
125
A Gordian Knot
149
CONSTRAINING THE POSSIBILITIES
153
THE METAMORPHOSIS OF METEOROLOGY
187
Color Insert follows page
230
MATH GETS THE PICTURE
231
PREDICTING IN THE PRESENCE OF CHAOS
271
Glossary
317
Bibliography
319
Index
323
Copyright

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About the author (2013)

Ian Roulstone is professor of mathematics at the University of Surrey. John Norbury is a fellow in applied mathematics at Lincoln College, University of Oxford. They are the coeditors of "Large-Scale Atmosphere-Ocean Dynamics".

Bibliographic information