Toward the Year 2000: Work in Progress

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Daniel Bell, Stephen Richards Graubard
MIT Press, 1997 - Social Science - 400 pages
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In 1965, the American Academy of Arts and Sciences initiated the Commission on the Year 2000, the forerunner of what became the field of futurism. The Commission did not believe that one could "predict" the future, but sought instead to identify structural changes in society that would have long-term social impacts. And since the Commission believed that choices were possible, it sought to chart "alternative futures" on critical issues that society would face.

The results of the Commission's work appeared in 1967 in a special issue of "D dalus," the journal of the Academy. The volume consisted of "working papers, " prepared by the Chairman of the Commission, Daniel Bell, twenty-three memoranda written by such scholars as Daniel P. Moynihan, Erik Erikson, Ernst Mayr, David Riesman, James Q. Wilson, and Samuel P. Huntington, and an edited transcript of the vigorous discussions provoked by the documents.

Thirty years later, the volume remains extraordinarily timely. It is both a benchmark for the understanding of American society and a prospectus of the issues that are still relevant to the problems of today--and tomorrow. This edition contains a new preface by Daniel Bell and Stephen Graubaud that reviews the Commission's work and identifies the foresight--and one startling failure--of that work.

Contributors: Daniel Bell, Robert Bowie, Zbigniew Brzezinski, Karl W. Deutsch, Theodosius Dobzhansky, Hedley Donovan, Leonard J. Duhl, Erik H. Erikson, Lawrence K. Frank, William Gorham, Stephen R. Graubard, Charles M. Haar, Samuel P. Huntington, Fred Charles Ikl , Herman Kahn, Harry Kalven, Jr., Wassily Leontief, Ernst Mayr, Margaret Mead,Matthew S. Meselson, George A. Miller, Wilbert E. Moore, Daniel P. Moynihan, Harold Orlans, Harvey S. Perloff, John R. Pierce, Alan Pifer, Emanuel R. Piore, Ithiel de Sola Pool, Michael Postan, Gardner C. Quarton, Roger Revelle, David Riesman, Eugene V. Rostow, Donald A. Schon, Martin Shubik, Krister Stendahl, Anthony J. Wiener, James Q. Wilson, Robert C. Wood, Christopher Wright, Paul N. Ylvisaker.

  

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Contents

DANIEL BELL
1
Preliminary Memorandum to the Commission from
17
Alternative Futures
31
Centralization and Decentralization
45
The Need for Models
56
A Summary by the Chairman
63
HERMAN KAHN AND ANTHONY J WIENER
73
FRED CHARLES IKLE
101
DAVID RIESMAN Notes on Meritocracy
265
JAMES Q WILSON Violence
277
JOHN R PIERCE Communication
297
EUGENE V ROSTOW Thinking About the Future of International Society
310
SAMUEL P HUNTINGTON Political Development and the Decline of the American System of World Order
315
ITHIEL DE SOLA POOL The International System in the Next Half Century
318
Working Session
325
The Nature and Limitations of Forecasting
327

DONALD A SCHON
127
MARTIN SHUBIK
139
HARVEY S PERLOFF
157
LAWRENCE K FRANK
177
HAROLD ORLANS
191
GARDNER C QUARTON
205
KRISTER STENDAHL
222
MARGARET MEAD
239
GEORGE A MILLER Some Psychological Perspectives on the Year 2000
251
Four Futures
339
The Need for Normative Statements
355
A Summary by the Chairman
366
Members of the Commission on the Year 2000
369
The Working Parties
372
Work in Further Progress
378
Notes on Contributors
382
Index
387
Copyright

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About the author (1997)

Stephen Graubard is Editor of Dacdalas, Journal of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences and Professor of History at Brown University.

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