Toward the Year 2000: Work in Progress
Daniel Bell, Stephen Richards Graubard, American Academy of Arts and Sciences. Commission on the Year 2000
MIT Press, 1997 - Social Science - 400 pages
In 1965, the American Academy of Arts and Sciences initiated the Commission on the Year 2000, the forerunner of what became the field of futurism. The Commission did not believe that one could "predict" the future, but sought instead to identify structural changes in society that would have long-term social impacts. And since the Commission believed that choices were possible, it sought to chart "alternative futures" on critical issues that society would face.
The results of the Commission's work appeared in 1967 in a special issue of "Dæ dalus," the journal of the Academy. The volume consisted of "working papers, " prepared by the Chairman of the Commission, Daniel Bell, twenty-three memoranda written by such scholars as Daniel P. Moynihan, Erik Erikson, Ernst Mayr, David Riesman, James Q. Wilson, and Samuel P. Huntington, and an edited transcript of the vigorous discussions provoked by the documents.
Thirty years later, the volume remains extraordinarily timely. It is both a benchmark for the understanding of American society and a prospectus of the issues that are still relevant to the problems of today--and tomorrow. This edition contains a new preface by Daniel Bell and Stephen Graubaud that reviews the Commission's work and identifies the foresight--and one startling failure--of that work.
Contributors: Daniel Bell, Robert Bowie, Zbigniew Brzezinski, Karl W. Deutsch, Theodosius Dobzhansky, Hedley Donovan, Leonard J. Duhl, Erik H. Erikson, Lawrence K. Frank, William Gorham, Stephen R. Graubard, Charles M. Haar, Samuel P. Huntington, Fred Charles Iklé , Herman Kahn, Harry Kalven, Jr., Wassily Leontief, Ernst Mayr, Margaret Mead,Matthew S. Meselson, George A. Miller, Wilbert E. Moore, Daniel P. Moynihan, Harold Orlans, Harvey S. Perloff, John R. Pierce, Alan Pifer, Emanuel R. Piore, Ithiel de Sola Pool, Michael Postan, Gardner C. Quarton, Roger Revelle, David Riesman, Eugene V. Rostow, Donald A. Schon, Martin Shubik, Krister Stendahl, Anthony J. Wiener, James Q. Wilson, Robert C. Wood, Christopher Wright, Paul N. Ylvisaker.
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Preliminary Memorandum to the Commission from
Centralization and Decentralization
The Need for Models
A Summary by the Chairman
HERMAN KAHN AND ANTHONY J WIENER
FRED CHARLES IKLE
DAVID RIESMAN Notes on Meritocracy
JAMES Q WILSON Violence
JOHN R PIERCE Communication
EUGENE V ROSTOW Thinking About the Future of International Society
SAMUEL P HUNTINGTON Political Development and the Decline of the American System of World Order
ITHIEL DE SOLA POOL The International System in the Next Half Century
The Nature and Limitations of Forecasting
DONALD A SCHON
HARVEY S PERLOFF
LAWRENCE K FRANK
GARDNER C QUARTON
GEORGE A MILLER Some Psychological Perspectives on the Year 2000