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1nERS 4th order serial BP4 and LM4 Centre for Economic cost of living cross equation restrictions current value demand equation distributed lag Duke of York Economic Policy Research economy employment rate estimating equation EXPECTATIONS AND LABOUR expected wage formed by 16 formed rationally GDP deflator given in Table HR HR instrumental variables labour demand function labour force LABOUR MARKET EQUILIBRIUM labour supply function lagged dependent variable lagged values Lagrange Multiplier tests lags 4 lags LM4 are test lnERt lnERt_i lnwt maintained hypothesis March I984 March market clearing natural rate null hypothesis order serial correlation original Phillips curve output parameter estimates rate of employment rational expectations real wage rejected restricted model Restricted Table restrictions implied returns to scale specification Statistics for Restrictions structural equation structural model substituting back supply and demand supply equation surprise supply function test statistics types of restrictions wage change wage rate wage surprise Xt(v Yo_al Yt(v