User Review - Flag as inappropriate
Judea Pearl's book Causality Models ,Reasoning and Inference starts with the Theory of Probability and explores the cause and effect Theories of science models. The Probability Theory combines a Predictive and a diagnostic approach , and we , Pathologists are applying just that everyday in our Professional life.Therefore ,I can tell the practical application of such theories using odds and likelihood ratio parameters. A good theory makes a good practice.The dictates of the approach is that the overall strength of a belief in any Hypothesis, is based on our previous experience /knowledge about it + the observed evidence (data collected and analysed as statistical proof). It is a product of 2 factors .
1 The prior odds .This is the predictive and prospective factor provided by our previous/background knowledge about it.
2. The likelihood ratio which gives the diagnostic or retrospective aspect .This is the evidence by observed data in a particular case/situation.The random variables and our expectations (our mathematical models/predictions) are then compared. In Indian Astronomy this prediction, then observation and correction of mathematically derived and observed data is what is called Beejaganitham. In Pathology , we do this in every case when we diagnose,predict prognosis and then wait for the outcome (The follow up). Thus putting theory into practice is what Causality :Models ,Reasoning and Inference means. And a person's belief comes from these factors. Faith and belief of a scientist (whether it is in God or any other subject) come only from these parameters and their careful study.
A good book for Mathematicians and Nonmathematicians alike.
Dr Suvarna Nalapat
Review: Causality: Models, Reasoning, and InferenceUser Review - Moshe - Goodreads
You really can infer causation from correlation (with a few caveats). Read full review