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alternative Analysis and Group analytic anchor point approach Arab mind Assessment of Options assume assumptions Bad Marginal bad outcome believe best-case Best-estimate cognitive maps cognitive psychology concept consider context contingency planning crisis and conflict current situation Daniel Kahneman Davis and Arquilla decision tables defense planning described deterrence developing economic rationality example factors framing game theory group discussion groupthink Hierarchy of Variables Influence Diagram Iran Iraq John Arquilla Joint Staff Judgment Table Kahan Kahneman key variables leaders Lee Ross limited contingencies limited rationality literature logic Marginal High Marginal Moderate maximizes expected maximizing the likelihood methodology military Model of Decisionmaking Moderate Bad multiple models opponent models opponent's Opportunities political possible opponents predict probability prospect theory Prospects psychological qualitative rational-analytic reasoning regional specialists related discussion risk acceptance risk averse Risks are Low Saddam Hussein Slovic standard decision analysis status strategy strawman superpower thinking Tversky underestimating utility function values worst-case