The Mind's Arrows: Bayes Nets and Graphical Causal Models in Psychology

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MIT Press, 2001 - Mathematics - 222 pages
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In recent years, small groups of statisticians, computer scientists, and philosophers have developed an account of how partial causal knowledge can be used to compute the effect of actions and how causal relations can be learned, at least by computers. The representations used in the emerging theory are causal Bayes nets or graphical causal models.

In his new book, Clark Glymour provides an informal introduction to the basic assumptions, algorithms, and techniques of causal Bayes nets and graphical causal models in the context of psychological examples. He demonstrates their potential as a powerful tool for guiding experimental inquiry and for interpreting results in developmental psychology, cognitive neuropsychology, psychometrics, social psychology, and studies of adult judgment. Using Bayes net techniques, Glymour suggests novel experiments to distinguish among theories of human causal learning and reanalyzes various experimental results that have been interpreted or misinterpreted -- without the benefit of Bayes nets and graphical causal models. The capstone illustration is an analysis of the methods used in Herrnstein and Murray's book The Bell Curve; Glymour argues that new, more reliable methods of data analysis, based on Bayes nets representations, would lead to very different conclusions from those advocated by Herrnstein and Murray.

  

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Contents

Introduction
1
Android Epistemology for Babies
7
The Frame Problem
19
A Puzzling Experiment
51
The Puzzle Resolved
63
Marilyn vos Savant Meets Rescorla and Wagner
69
Cheng Models
75
Learning Procedures
93
From Freud to Farah
113
Inferences to Cognitive Architecture from Individual Case
129
Group Data in Cognitive Neuropsychology
151
The Explanatory Power of Lesioning Neural Nets
159
The Case of The Bell
171
Notes
205
Index
219
Copyright

The Case of Backward
103

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About the author (2001)

Clark Glymour is Senior Research Scientist at IHMC and Alumni University Professor of Philosophy at Carnegie Mellon University.

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