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asset Bank Crisis Onset Bank of San bank run banking and currency banking crises Banking Crisis Currency banking problems banking sector distress bivariate causality Center for Pacific correctly called 87 crises correctly called crises in emerging Crises Number Crisis Currency Crisis crisis episodes currency and banking currency crises cutoff)8 Detragiache 1998a Developing Countries East Asian emerging markets emerging markets sample export growth Federal Reserve Bank financial liberalization foreign exchange market Goodness-of-fit indicator of currency Indonesia inflation interest rates International Monetary Fund Japan Jeffrey Frankel Kaminsky and Reinhart Korea Log Probability Score macroeconomic Michael Hutchison Monetary Policy multivariate probit non-crises correctly called number of instances observations correctly called occurrence of bank onset of banking onset of currency Overvaluation Predicted Onset probit equations probit estimates Probit regression estimates Pseudo-R2 Quadratic Probability Score Ramon Moreno real exchange rate Reuven Glick Shang-Jin Wei Summary statistics Table 4a twin crises U.S. dollar Velasco