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Estimation of Probability and Utility
Does Subjective Expected Utility Theory Describe
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ability alternative amount to win anchoring and adjustment argued Assessed probability attributes balls Bayes behaviour calculated calibration cent assessments chance Chapter conservatism consider Coombs correlations curves decision analysis decision problem decision theory decision tree decision-making under uncertainty description of decision-making diagnosis Draw duplex gamble elicited evaluation event example expected value Experimental Psychology Fischhoff heuristics human inference intuitive Journal of Experimental judgements likelihoods MAUT measures multi-attributed normative status normative theory opinion revision outcome patient payoff matrix picnic PIP System pneumonia poker-chip possible posterior opinion posterior probabilities prefer prior opinion prob probabilistic information probabilistic thinking probabilities and payoffs probabilities and utilities probability assessments probability estimates probability revision Prospect theory representation result risk sample scores sequence shown in Figure simple gambles situation standard gamble subjective expected utility subjective probability sure-thing principle task theorem Tversky and Kahneman two-outcome gambles variable variance wager weights