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Ahmed Galal balance of payments billion Brazil Brazilian economy capital flows Central Bank Chairman consolidated public sector COPOM currency overvaluation current account deficit December Development dollar ECES Economists ECES economic growth Economists ECES Economists effective exchange rate Egyptian exchange rate policy exchange rate regime exchange rate scheme expected depreciation expenditures external liabilities external sector federal fiscal adjustment fiscal policy fiscal tightening flexible exchange rate floating exchange rate foreign exchange market Free Trade Agreement full employment Graph high real interest hyperinflation IBGE important increase inflation targeting inflows international reserves Investment investors January July macroeconomic Mahmoud Mohieldin Managing Director March Mexican crisis monetary policy nominal exchange rate November October output gap overnight interest rate package peg system percent of GDP percent per month price stability public debt ratio real exchange rate real GDP real interest rates Real Plan reforms Samiha Fawzy SELIC September simulation Tourism in Egypt variables