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adverse selection analysis apprenticeship ﬁrm arbitrageur average Burlington Street central bank competition from developing Contem credibility crisis currency crises developing countries domestic Economic Policy Research effects empirical endogenous growth endogenous growth theory estimated evidence exchange rate peg exogenous expected exports factor Financial ﬁnd ﬁrm ﬁrst foreign exchange markets function Germany hedgers hedging HR HR human capital implies import prices increase industry inﬂation inflation rate inflation targeting instantaneous forward rate intemational interest rates investment Joumal labor market labour intensive commodities macroeconomic manufacture matching meetings ahead military quitters monetary policy monopsony observed overeducated period physical capital policy rates policy reform positive prediction production regressions relative price risk-averse sample sector separating equilibrium signiﬁcant skilled workers speciﬁc speculative attacks Spillovers spot rates standard stayers steady subscription term structure theory trade training level Transition Transition Economics unemployment unskilled labour intensive unskilled workers wage inequality