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adverse selection analysis apprenticeship ﬁrm arbitrageur average Burlington Street central bank coefﬁcients competition from developing convergence credibility crisis currency crises deﬁned developing countries effects empirical endogenous growth endogenous growth theory estimated evidence exchange rate pegging exogenous expected factor ﬁnancial ﬁnd ﬁnding ﬁrst ﬁxed foreign exchange markets function Germany hedgers hedging HR HR human capital implies import prices increase industry inﬂation rate inﬂation targeting instantaneous forward rate intemational interest rates International investment Joumal labor market labour intensive commodities macroeconomic manufacture meetings ahead military quitters monetary policy monopsony observed overeducated physical capital policy rates policy reform positive prediction production proﬁts regressions relative price risk-averse sample sector separating equilibrium signiﬁcant signiﬁcantly skilled workers speciﬁc speculative attacks Spillovers spot rates stayers steady subscription Technological Convergence term structure theory trade training ﬁrm training level Transition Transition Economies unemployment unskilled labour intensive unskilled workers wage inequality