A Primer on Decision Making: How Decisions HappenBuilding on lecture notes from his acclaimed course at Stanford University, James March provides a brilliant introduction to decision making, a central human activity fundamental to individual, group, organizational, and societal life. March draws on research from all the disciplines of social and behavioral science to show decision making in its broadest context. By emphasizing how decisions are actually made -- as opposed to how they should be made -- he enables those involved in the process to understand it both as observers and as participants. March sheds new light on the decision-making process by delineating four deep issues that persistently divide students of decision making: Are decisions based on rational choices involving preferences and expected consequences, or on rules that are appropriate to the identity of the decision maker and the situation? Is decision making a consistent, clear process or one characterized by ambiguity and inconsistency? Is decision making significant primarily for its outcomes, or for the individual and social meanings it creates and sustains? And finally, are the outcomes of decision processes attributable solely to the actions of individuals, or to the combined influence of interacting individuals, organizations, and societies? March's observations on how intelligence is -- or is not -- achieved through decision making, and possibilities for enhancing decision intelligence, are also provided. March explains key concepts of vital importance to students of decision making and decision makers, such as limited rationality, history-dependent rules, and ambiguity, and weaves these ideas into a full depiction of decision making. He includes a discussion of the modern aspects of several classic issues underlying these concepts, such as the relation between reason and ignorance, intentionality and fate, and meaning and interpretation. This valuable textbook by one of the seminal figures in the history of organizational decision making will be required reading for a new generation of scholars, managers, and other decision makers. |
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action adaptation alternatives ambiguity aspirations assume attention behavior beliefs cerned Chapter choice opportunities cision coalition formation competence competition conceptions conflict considered consistent cost-of-living index deci decision mak decision makers decision processes decision theory defined effects ences environment estimates evoked example expected expected value experience failure forms future game theory garbage can model groups human ideas iden identities and rules implementation important inconsistent increases individuals inferences intelligence interaction interpretation involves knowledge lead learning less limited rationality logrolls loose coupling meaning ment mentation observed organization organizational outcomes participants particular partners partnerships performance political possible predict preferences and identities preferences or identities problems procedures rational choice result risk taking risk-taking propensity role rule following satisficing sion makers situations slack social story strategic misrepresentation strategies structure students of decision success symbolic target tend things tion tive viduals
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Page 9 - Rationality 9 appear to consider only a few and to look at them sequentially rather than simultaneously. Decision makers do not consider all consequences of their alternatives. They focus on some and ignore others. Relevant information about consequences is not sought, and available information is often not used. Instead of having a complete, consistent set of preferences, decision makers seem to have incomplete and inconsistent goals, not all of which are considered at the same time.
Page 10 - In a similar way, students of organizational decision making assume some more or less obvious information constraints imposed by methods of organizing diverse individuals: 1 Problems of attention Time and capabilities for attention are limited. Not everything can be attended to at once. Too many signals are received. Too many things are relevant to a decision. Because of those limitations, theories of decision making are often better described as theories of attention or search than as theories of...
Page ix - ... occasions in which individuals and institutions achieve coherence and reduce equivocality? Or are they occasions in which inconsistency and ambiguity are exhibited, exploited, and expanded? The third issue is whether decision making is an instrumental activity or an interpretive activity. Are decisions to be understood primarily in terms of the way they fit into a problem solving, adaptive calculus? Or are they to be understood primarily in terms of the way they fit into efforts to establish...
Page ix - Are decisions to be understood primarily in terms of the way they fit into a problem solving, adaptive calculus? Or are they to be understood primarily in terms of the way they fit into efforts to establish individual and social meaning? The fourth issue is whether outcomes of decision processes are seen as primarily attributable to the actions of autonomous actors or to the systemic properties of an interacting ecology. Is it possible to describe decisions as resulting from the intentions, identities,...
Page 2 - A rational procedure is one that pursues a logic of consequence. It makes a choice conditional on the answers to four basic questions: 1 . The question of alternatives: What actions are possible? 2. The question of expectations: What future consequences might follow from each alternative? How likely is each possible consequence, assuming that alternative is chosen? 3. The question of preferences: How valuable (to the decision maker) are the consequences associated with each of the alternatives? 4....
Page viii - Do decision makers pursue a logic of consequence, making choices among alternatives by evaluating their consequences in terms of prior preferences? Or do they pursue a logic of appropriateness, fulfilling identities or roles by recognizing situations and following rules that match appropriate behavior to the situations they encounter?
Page ix - ... which inconsistency and ambiguity are exhibited, exploited, and expanded? The third issue is whether decision making is an instrumental activity or an interpretive activity. Are decisions to be understood primarily in terms of the way they fit into a problem solving, adaptive calculus? Or are they to be understood primarily in terms of the way they fit into efforts to establish individual and social meaning? The fourth issue is whether outcomes of decision processes are seen as primarily attributable...
Page 13 - Heuristics. Decision makers recognize patterns in the situations they face and apply rules of appropriate behavior to those situations.
Page viii - The second issue is whether decision making is typified more by clarity and consistency or by ambiguity and inconsistency. Are decisions occasions in which individuals and institutions achieve coherence and reduce equivocality? Or are they occasions in which inconsistency and ambiguity are exhibited, exploited, and expanded? The third issue is whether decision making is an instrumental activity or an interpretive...
Page viii - Decision Making The first issue is whether decisions are to be viewed as choice-based or rule-based. Do decision makers pursue a logic of consequence, making choices among alternatives by evaluating their consequences in terms of prior preferences? Or do they pursue a logic of appropriateness, fulfilling identities or rules by...