Probability and Bayesian StatisticsThis book contains selected and refereed contributions to the "Inter national Symposium on Probability and Bayesian Statistics" which was orga nized to celebrate the 80th birthday of Professor Bruno de Finetti at his birthplace Innsbruck in Austria. Since Professor de Finetti died in 1985 the symposium was dedicated to the memory of Bruno de Finetti and took place at Igls near Innsbruck from 23 to 26 September 1986. Some of the pa pers are published especially by the relationship to Bruno de Finetti's scientific work. The evolution of stochastics shows growing importance of probability as coherent assessment of numerical values as degrees of believe in certain events. This is the basis for Bayesian inference in the sense of modern statistics. The contributions in this volume cover a broad spectrum ranging from foundations of probability across psychological aspects of formulating sub jective probability statements, abstract measure theoretical considerations, contributions to theoretical statistics and stochastic processes, to real applications in economics, reliability and hydrology. Also the question is raised if it is necessary to develop new techniques to model and analyze fuzzy observations in samples. The articles are arranged in alphabetical order according to the family name of the first author of each paper to avoid a hierarchical ordering of importance of the different topics. Readers interested in special topics can use the index at the end of the book as guide. |
Contents
| 1 | |
| 17 | |
Reliability of a Complex System from Bayesian Viewpoint | 31 |
Information in Selection Models | 39 |
Approximations in Statistics from a DecisionTheoretical | 53 |
Restricted Bayes Estimates for Binomial Parameters | 61 |
Bayesian Prevision of Time Series by Transfer | 73 |
Priors for Exponential Families which maximize | 83 |
De Finettis Methods of Elicitation | 279 |
Bayesian Estimation of Design Floods under Regional | 285 |
Bayesian Methods in Multiperiod Financial Decision | 295 |
Cognitive Representation of Incomplete Knowledge | 305 |
267 | 320 |
Comparison of some Statistical Methods for Counting | 321 |
Bayes Inference in Life Tests When Samples Sizes | 335 |
On Coxs Confidence Distribution | 347 |
Calibrating and Combining Precipitation Probability | 97 |
Coherent Distributions and Lindleys Paradox | 111 |
Mean Variance Expected Utility and Ruin Probability | 121 |
A Product of Multivariate T Densities as Upper Bound | 129 |
A Common Model Selection Criterion | 139 |
Predictive Screening Methods in Binary Response Models | 151 |
De Finettis Probabilistic Approach and the Theory | 159 |
Some Characteristics of Bayesian Designs | 169 |
The Analysis of Multiple Choice Tests in Educational | 175 |
Dynamic Inference on Survival Functions | 183 |
The Role of Probability and Statistics in Physics | 193 |
Can we build a Subjectivist Statistical Package? | 203 |
Life Time Distributions and Stochastic Dynamical Systems | 219 |
Chromosome Dosimetry | 225 |
On Some Bayes and Empirical Bayes Selection Procedures | 233 |
Bayesian Aspects in the Theory of Comparison | 247 |
Maximal Semigroups and the Support of Gauss | 257 |
Sufficiency Completeness Principle | 263 |
A Bayesian Analysis of a Generalized Slope Ratio Bioassay | 357 |
279 | 361 |
On Absolute Continuity of Measures Due to Gaussian | 365 |
Remarks on Foundations of Bayesian Statistics | 379 |
285 | 391 |
HPDRegions for the Linear Regression Model | 395 |
A Very General De FinettiType Theorem | 403 |
A Bayesian Approach to Estimating the Parameters | 415 |
The Extended BayesPostulate Its Potential Effect | 423 |
The Analysis of Weibull Lifetime Data Incorporating | 431 |
Robust Tests for Trend in Binomial Proportions | 443 |
Decomposition of Weibull MixtureDistributions in Accelerated | 455 |
Robust Bayesian Methods | 463 |
Is It Necessary to Develop a Fuzzy Bayesian Inference? | 471 |
Bayesian Models and Methods for Binary Time Series | 487 |
SemiSufficiency in Accelerated Life Testing | 497 |
| 505 | |
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