A Delicate Balance: Portfolio Analysis and Management for Intelligence Information Dissemination Programs
This publication describes the application of the RAND Corporation's Portfolio Analysis and Management Method (PortMan) to the evaluation of the National Security Agency's (NSA) information dissemination program portfolio, which is managed by the NSA Information Sharing Services (ISS) division. RAND's PortMan method enables the data-driven analysis of project portfolios and provides a means to monitor the progress of potentially high-value projects. It also allows portfolio managers to monitor the impact of any mitigation strategies they undertake, ensuring that the portfolio's highest potential value is achieved. For this project, RAND researchers first employed the Delphi method, a process for eliciting group opinion by a series of questionnaires with selective feedback from earlier responses, to collect expert opinion from the ISS Senior Leadership Group. This allowed for an estimation of value and risk for each project. RAND then used these estimates, together with cost information provided by ISS, to develop project rankings and to estimate the expected value-to-cost ratio for each project. RAND selected portfolios of projects that maximized the total expected value for the available program budget using a linear programming method and compared these results to ISS management's funding priorities.
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The Basics of Portfolio Management
CHAPTER TWO The RAND PortMan Method
CHAPTER THREE PortMan Evaluation of the NSA ISS Portfolio
CHAPTER FOUR Conclusions
APPENDIX A Project Descriptions
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Analysis and Management Appendix Brian G components of value current operations decrease defined Delphi exercise Delphi method Delphi round Development Metrics Question estimate EV-to-cost ratio Example questions ﬁnal products Fiscal Year 2008 four rounds funded hardware included ISS management ISS portfolio ISS SLG ISS’s legacy systems level of consensus linear programming Maintenance Metrics Question maximum National Security Agency near-consensus non-consensus NSA ISS number of ﬁnal O&M O&M O&M O&M projects OM3 and OM4 Operations and Maintenance Portfolio Analysis PortMan analysis Probability of Successful program managers project portfolio project rankings question OM4 questions to consider R&D and O&M RAND pilot study RAND PortMan method RAND team RAND’s Reduces the number Research and Development Risk Metric Questions SERV1 SERV2 SERV3 SERV4 SERV5 Signiﬁcantly Silberglitt SLG members Successful Implementation SUPP2 SUPP3 SUPP4 SUPP5 SUPP6 SUPP7 TOOL1 total program budget value and risk value components value metrics Value of Successful Value Versus Risk