A SALT Safeguards Program: Coping with Soviet Deception Under Strategic Arms Agreements
The author argues for a SALT Safeguards Program to complement the SALT II treaty. Such a SALT Safeguards Program would organize intelligence measures and vulnerability-reducing defense programs. Goals include: improving the reliability of "breakout" warning under conditions of peacetime deception, and improving the timeliness and utility of defense options should breakout occur. A legislatively mandated SALT Safeguards Program is proposed, in lieu of a defense budget increase that is not designed to minimize risks under SALT II. Peacetime deception is generally lawful, even under SALT II. An element of the Safeguards Program would include expanded counterintelligence jurisdiction for the "national technical means" of SALT verification that are as vulnerable as human sources to deception. Hypotheses regarding possible Soviet underrepresentation of ICBM missile accuracies and delays in protecting Minuteman survivability are presented, as illustration of the strategic deception problem in peacetime.
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ABM Treaty Albert Szent-Gyorgyi ARMS AGREEMENTS William Article XV assessment problems bomber breakout warning cheating compliance concealment and deception concealment measures counterforce counterintelligence debate deception capabilities deception hypothesis deception in peacetime deception operations deception practices DECEPTION UNDER STRATEGIC deceptive resources defense program Defense Secretary deployments designation of U.S. disestablishment encryption EVALUATING FOREIGN DECEPTION foreign deception activities gence governmental priority guidance system Hannah Arendt Harris September l979 ICBM identify strategic deception including timely breakout investments Jack Anderson John Maynard Keynes legislatively-mandated SALT Safeguards Malenkov ment Minuteman III MIRV'ed national technical means Numbers rejected rocket systems SAFEGUARDS PROGRAM NECESSARY SALT II treaty SALT II verification SALT Safeguards Program Soviet concealment Soviet deception efforts Soviet leadership Soviet strategic special SALT Safeguards SS-9 and SS-ll STRATEGIC ARMS AGREEMENTS strategic assessments strategic balance strategic breakout strategic deception efforts strategic deception program strategic forces Strategic Rocket Forces telemetry testing U.S. intelligence establishment U.S. strategic United