A Template for Analyzing and Projecting Labor Market Indicators
This note is a reference guide for the unemployment template, an econometric tool that allows researchers to analyze and project labor market indicators for any country with sufficient data coverage. Section I explains the motivation behind designing a new surveillance tool to study labor markets, and summarizes the key features of the template. Section II details the data inputs needed and their sources. Section III describes the methods used to estimate the employment-growth elasticity, a measure of the extent to which employment responds to output. Section IV outlines the medium-term outlook table and projection charts created by the template once the inputs are customized to generate an appropriate elasticity. Finally, Section V presents a discussion on how to interpret the results produced by the template, and of the issues that arise from projecting labor market indicators.
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adjustment factor aimed at increasing analysis Analyzing and Projecting baseline elasticity changes coefficients constant returns country of interest country selected country-specific Crivelli econometric techniques economic growth corresponds EcOS elasticities estimated employment and output Employment Intensity employment persistence entrants equation explanatory variable ﬂexibility Fund economists GDP growth rates hydrocarbon ILO’s IMF’s inputs International Labor Organization International Monetary Fund Kapsos Labor force projections labor force series labor market indicators labor market outcomes long-term elasticities medium-term table Middle East needed to reach North Africa output growth panel parameters Paul Zimand percent point estimates policy discussion positive economic growth potential growth rates production function productivity growth Projecting Labor Market projection period reach the target real GDP growth regressions responsiveness of employment returns to scale sector Stata program structural reforms surveillance TECHNICAL NOTES template produces time-series trend terms unemployed Unemployment rate projections user may enter variables Washington WEO database World Bank