A Tragedy of Arms: Military and Security Developments in the Maghreb

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Greenwood Publishing Group, 2002 - History - 315 pages
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The Maghreb--Morocco, Algeria, Libya, and Tunisia--is a region overburdened by unnecessary military expenditures. Despite persistent civil conflicts and militarized regimes in a number of countries in the region, there are actually few genuine external threats, and the armed forces are now largely used to maintain internal security.

A detailed country-by-country assessment of the effectiveness of military forces, and their impact on regional economics, shows that the region remains a mosaic of conflicting national ambitions, but strategic ambitions have been supplanted by internal conflicts, tensions, and politics. Declining military budgets are leading to declining military strength and capability, but they belie the Maghreb's potential for armed conflict and human suffering. Even though the Maghreb is a supplier of oil and natural gas, which usually ensures the attention of the West, this tragedy of arms gets little attention from the outside world. This means that the prospects for the region are continued wasteful military spending, and the resultant harm to national economic and political health.

 

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Contents

Introduction to a Tragedy
1
Arms and the Maghreb
3
Recent Force Trends
5
Economics and Military Spending
12
Future Patterns in Military Development
20
Size Military Forces and Demographics of the Maghreb States
21
Current Trends in Military Expenditures Arms Imports and Military Advisory Efforts
24
Arms Imports to the Maghreb
28
The Role of the Governments Security Forces
161
The Role of the Islamic Extremists and Armed Groups
164
The Military and Energy Security
169
Oil Reserves Production and Pipeline Security
170
Gas Reserves Production and Pipeline Security
172
Algeria and Weapons of Mass Destruction
174
Security Military Forces and Regional Stability
176
Libya
180

Arms Suppliers to the Maghreb and the Quality of Advisory Efforts
29
Major Trends in Maghreb Military Forces
35
Morocco
56
Moroccos Rise as a Power
57
Tensions with Algeria
58
The Struggle for the Western Sahara
59
The Early Conflict and the Roles of Mauritania and Algeria
61
The War Shifts in Moroccos Favor
62
De Facto Moroccan Victory
64
The NeverOccurring Vote
65
The Status of the Western Sahara
68
The Political and Economic Background Shaping Moroccos Military Forces
70
Ecnomic Developments in Morocco
75
Moroccos Defense Spending and Arms Imports
80
Trends in Arms Imports
83
Moroccos Military Developments and Force Size
85
Moroccan Armed Forces
89
Moroccan Military Manpower
90
The Moroccan Army
91
The Moroccan Navy
96
The Moroccan Air Force
98
Moroccan Paramilitary and Security Forces
100
Algeria
108
The Military Politics of Algeria
109
An Army with a Country
110
A Growing Economic Crisis
111
Benjedids Failed Political and Economic Reform
113
The Armys 1992 Coup
117
The Boudiaf Fiasco
118
Zeroual and Democracy Give Way to the Power
119
New Political Barriers to Islamic and Berber Parties
121
Zeroual Announces He Will Step Down
122
Bouteflika Makes Another Attempt at Reform and Political Liberalization
124
Uncertain Progress Continuing War
126
Progress and NonProgress During 1998
129
The Amnesty Deadline of January 13 2000
131
Prospects After the Amnesty
133
Economic Developments and Security in Algeria
134
Economics and Islamic Extremism
139
Algerian Military Expenditures and Arms Sales
140
Algerias Military Developments and Force Size
145
Algerian Armed Forces
146
Algerian Military Manpower
152
The Algerian Army
153
The Algerian Air Force
156
The Algerian Navy
158
Algerian Problems with Technology Transfer
160
Libyas Strategic Importance
181
Libyan Clashes with US Forces
186
The Lockerbie Bombing and Sanctions
187
Libya and Sanctions
189
Other Clashes and Quarrels
191
Libyas Internal Security
194
Economic and Political Development
196
Wasting the Rewards of the Oil Boom
197
Structural Problems and the Great ManMade River
198
Sanctions
199
The Oil Crash of 19971998 and the Recovery of 1999
200
The Government Crashes in March 2000
202
Oil and Energy Security in Libya
203
Libyan Military Spending
207
Libyan Military Developments and Force Size
212
Libyan Armed Forces
217
Libyan Military Manpower
218
The Libyan Army
221
The Libyan Navy
224
The Libyan Air Force
227
Libyan LandBased Air Defenses
230
The Worlds Largest Military Parking Lot
231
Libyas Paramilitary and Security Forces
233
Intelligence and Terrorist Activities
236
Libya and Weapons of Mass Destruction
237
Libyan Chemical Warfare Programs
239
Libyan Biological Programs
241
Libyan War Fighting Capability
242
Tunisia
246
Tunisian PoliticoMilitary Developments
247
Ben Ali Comes to Power
248
Problems with Islamic Fundamentalism
249
Ben All Democracy and the Future
251
Economic Developments in Tunisia
252
Military Expenditures and Arms Transfers
255
Tunisias Military Developments and Force size
261
Tunisian Military Manpower
265
The Tunisian Army
266
The Tunisian Navy
270
The Tunisian Air Force
271
Changing the Military Tragedy in the Maghreb
276
Sources and Methods
278
Methods
280
Notes
282
Bibliography
310
Copyright

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About the author (2002)

ANTHONY H. CORDESMAN is Senior Fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and a military analyst for ABC News. A frequent commentator on National Public Radio, he is the author of numerous books on security issues and has served in a number of senior positions in the US government.

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