A World-Futures Handbook: Future Contexts for Your Policy Assumptions
You must test your policy against future conditions, because that policy will live in the future. You cannot do so, because no one really can predict those conditions. DILEMMA! Escape? Draw your assumptions and make your judgments by living imaginatively within one designated scenario that illustrates how the real future may unfold. Then, do it again-and again-using different scenarios, in a series of parallel exercises. However, the scenarios that you use must pass some difficult tests. The alternative future scenarios offered in this World Futures Handbook are the only ones that pass those tests. LUCKILY, ONE SIZE FITS ALL. You, our targeted reader, work on some policy-choosing a career, voting for a candidate, selecting where on earth to build your next shoe factory, designing a counter-terrorist strategy. When the future gets here, all policies will have to function within it somehow, and any set of appropriately projected illustrations of its character will do. This one "tree" of alternative future scenarios provides contexts from which you can draw needed assumptions, whatever your long-term policy may be.
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