A Century of Current Account Dynamics, Issue 8927
Recent globalization trends have refocused attention on the historical evolution of international capital mobility over the long run. The issue is examined here using time-series analysis of current-account dynamics for fifteen countries since circa 1850. The inter-war period emerges as an era of low capital mobility and only recently can we observe a tentative return to the degree of capital mobility witnessed during the late nineteenth century. The analysis of saving and investment dynamics also helps make sense of the frequently observed high correlation of saving and investment rates in historical data.
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15 countries account dynamics individual adjustment speeds Andrei Shleifer Argentina Australia B.Woods balance series Bretton Woods Bureau of Economic CA/Y capital flows capital market capital mobility cointegrated convergence speed cross-section current account adjustment Current account dynamics debt Denmark deterministic dynamic model dynamics individual country Economic Research economy equation error variance expected value FH coefficient FH parameters FH puzzle FH regression FH test Finland flexibility Float Germany global capital market Gold Std growth historical implied individual country samples inside the back instructions inside inter-war period Interwar investment rates Jansen Japan lags periods long run LRBC National Bureau national income NBER Working Papers Netherlands Norway Notes and Sources Number Obstfeld papers in hard Partial Subscription Pooling Countries Periods ratio saving and investment saving-investment simulation Spain Specification Tests stationary process steady-state stylized facts Sweden Taylor Tests No Pooling text and appendix time-series United Kingdom Var(e VECM volatility zero