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absolute percentage error annual and quarterly annual data Annual Forecasts annual models Box-Jenkins method Brown's Exponential civilian workers econometric equation evaluated exponential smoothing method forecast for 1991 forecasting accuracy forecasting methods forecasting performance forecasting techniques fourth quarter ahead Holt's exponential smoothing hotel/motel sales income per capita independent variables Journal of Forecasting linear exponential smoothing Makridakis mean absolute error mean absolute percentage mean squared error Michigan State University multiple regression model partial autocorrelation percentage error MAPE personal disposable income quarter ahead forecasts quarterly data quarterly forecasts quarterly models ranked rate of civilian root mean squared SAUTAX seasonality second best model simple linear trend simple moving averages single exponential smoothing smoothing constant statistical stepwise regression sum of sales tax collections data temperature in Michigan third best model tourism demand travel activity travel and tourism travel demand trend estimate U.S. dollar U.S. treasury bills unemployment rate Winters Witt and Witt