A Prolegomenon to the Forecasting of Transportation Development
Transportation Center, Northwestern University, 1965 - Traffic engineering - 123 pages
The analysis proceeds with a review of the problem of forecasting transportation requirements. Several idiosyncratic models are examined and their properties specified. The forecasting of transportation stocks and commodity flows is discussed. Models of the demand for transportation services are implemented with empirical data. Graph theory as an interpretative frame of reference is introduced and the analysis moves to a detailed examination of network structure. Inter- and intra-nation network structures are compared. Codified route and commodity networks are factor analyzed and fundamental structures isolated. An attempt is made to simulate the morphological characteristics of transportation networks. Simulations of the Northern Ireland railway network are undertaken using nearest neighbor methods. Finally, the problems of planning and forecasting are reviewed in the light of the foregoing analyses. Criteria and objectives are discussed. An overall evaluation of available planning and forecasting capabilities is presented. (Author).
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Forecasts as SelfFulfilling Prophecies
Review of Forecasting Models
The Forecasting Capability
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airline routes Alpha Index analysis areas Army Transportation Research Average Edge Length Bihar Calcutta Cars centroid coefficients of determination Commodity Flows computations connection matrix correlation cost cross-section cyclomatic number dependent Dimensions of Commodity discussion elasticities estimated Eustis example existing Figure forecast model forecasting capability Fort Eustis freight Gamma Index highway Honduras independent variables indices instance Jute link allocation procedure link-node measures nations natural logarithm network structure node of degree Northern Ireland number of edges number of links number of nodes number of regions percent planar graph planning population population density portation present principal components analysis Rail Rail Tracks railroad redundant Reference regional nearest neighbor regression coefficients route location simple Standard Error statistical Submitted under Contract summary Table time-series trans transportation development transportation forecasting transportation networks Transportation Research Command transportation stock transportation systems U.S. Army Transportation variations vertex vertices West Bengal