A Review and Update of the Virginia Department of Transportation Cash Flow Forecasting Model
This report details the research done to review and update components of the VDOT cash flow forecasting model. Specifically, the study updated the monthly factors submodel used to predict payments on construction contracts. For the other submodel reviewed in this study, the research culminated in the formulation of a new forecasting technique for maintenance expenditures. The report is divided into three sections. The research undertaken to update the "Z-Vectors" of the monthly factors submodel and how these new vectors may be used for forecasting purposes is presented in the fust section. The development of a new model for predicting maintenance expenditures is documented in the second section ofthe report. How this new forecasting procedure is used is also explained in this section. Finally, recommendations are suggested to improve the Virginia Department of Transportation's cash flow forecasting techniques.
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___°_ _°__ 89 through FY Allen and Shapanka altemate APPENDIX autocorrelation Available by month breakpoint dummies Cash Flow Forecasting cash ﬂow model coefﬁcient completion date construction contract payouts contract size group contractor Economic Indicators Election Year Dummy estimated explanatory variables ﬁgures ﬁle ﬁrst ﬁscal ﬁve Flow Forecasting Model forecast errors forecasting equation FPDM heteroskedasticity inﬂuenced line item maintenance disbursements Maintenance Expenditures Submodel month dummy model month lags monthly factors submodel multicollinearity nine contract precip lag predict predict maintenance Prime Rate project number regression model REVIEW AND UPDATE Sal Empl seasonal factors seasonal pattem signiﬁcant signiﬁcantly sine wave statistical structural break trafﬁc Transportation Research Council Trig trigonometric function trigonometric model Values Current Values variables were tested VDOT VDOT’s Virginia Department Virginia Transportation Research VTRC wage and Sal White test Z-Vectors ZM Vector