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The Forecasting Accuracy of the World Economic Outlook
Time Series Forecasts
4J Cfl ahead forecasts ahead projections Artis average forecast error business cycles CM CM condition for efficiency current period current year forecasts different from zero Economic Outlook forecast Economic Outlook projections Equation evaluate the accuracy forecast is better forecasting accuracy forecasts of growth forms of inefficiency GDP/GNP growth and inflation growth projections i-l CM improve the accuracy inflation forecasts inflation projections INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND judgmental projections kinds of inefficiency last period's major industrial countries major industrial economies mean squared error minimum variance model O O i-l o o o optimality conditions output growth past values percentage point pooled projections projection errors projections of growth projections of inflation random walk forecast rational expectations RMSE root mean squared Schwarz criterion series forecasts series models seven countries seven major industrial sufficient condition suggests Theil statistics unbiased unbiasedness unexpected growth unexpected inflation United Kingdom WEO forecast West Germany World Economic Outlook