A Statistical Model to Predict the Transit Capacity of Sea-level Canals

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Waterways Experiment Station, 1969 - Canals - 19 pages
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The large first cost and subsequent operation and maintenance costs of sea-level canals demand that all economic and technical alternatives be thoroughly investigated before construction is begun. The vast number of variables to be considered for any given set of alternative canals requires study in an orderly and meaningful manner. The derivation and application of a statistical model in the form of an algebraic equation which predicts yearly transit capacities of sea-level canals are presented in this paper. The equation considers only the following significant variables: canal geometry, ship mix, ship stopping distances, length and number of convoys, a desired maximum waiting time, and an overall canal efficiency (to predict transiting at less than maximum capacity). A simple algebraic representation is particularly useful because it can be used for preliminary canal transit studies without the need for either sophisticated mathematics or digital computer facilities. After narrowing the number of technically and economically feasible alternatives with the canal transit equation, the remaining alternatives can be studied in more detail by other means. (Author).

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