## A Statistical Model to Predict the Transit Capacity of Sea-level CanalsThe large first cost and subsequent operation and maintenance costs of sea-level canals demand that all economic and technical alternatives be thoroughly investigated before construction is begun. The vast number of variables to be considered for any given set of alternative canals requires study in an orderly and meaningful manner. The derivation and application of a statistical model in the form of an algebraic equation which predicts yearly transit capacities of sea-level canals are presented in this paper. The equation considers only the following significant variables: canal geometry, ship mix, ship stopping distances, length and number of convoys, a desired maximum waiting time, and an overall canal efficiency (to predict transiting at less than maximum capacity). A simple algebraic representation is particularly useful because it can be used for preliminary canal transit studies without the need for either sophisticated mathematics or digital computer facilities. After narrowing the number of technically and economically feasible alternatives with the canal transit equation, the remaining alternatives can be studied in more detail by other means. (Author). |

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algebraic equation Analytical Model Anklam beam Bulk carrier canal geometry canal roughness canal transit capacity canal transit equation canal width Capacities of Sea-Level computer program desired maximum waiting digital computer simulation distance for ships efficiency factor Engineer Waterways Experiment entitled An Analytical example problem ft number ft/sec Hydraulics Division Interoceanic Canal Study IOCS Memorandum ith ship Jacksonville John Harrison length plus stopping minimum canal mode Percentage Model to Predict number of ships number of technically number of variables one-way mode one-way operation percent percentage of ships Predict Ship Transit required to transit sample canal sea-level canals ship length ship mix ship parameters ship sample Ship Transit Capacities ships can transit simple algebraic representation STATISTICAL MODEL stopping distance Tidal total number transit the canal transit those ships two-lane mode Two-lane operation two-way sections U. S. Army Engineer vast number Vicksburg Waterways Experiment Station yearly transit capacities