A Working Model for Predicting the Consumption and Revenue Impacts of Large Increases in the U.S. Federal Cigarette Excise Tax, Issue 4803
This report describes an easily computable model of the relation between cigarette prices and cigarette consumption in the United States. The model is used to predict the revenue impacts of Federal excise tax hikes ranging from $0.45 to $1.76 per pack
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adult smoker adults who smoke ALTERNATIVE TAX SCENARIOS average number BASELINE ASSUMPTIONS Baseline No increase baseline scenario calendar capita consumption cents per pack CIGARETTE EXCISE TAX cigarette prices Cigarette Smoking cigarettes per day component Consumer Price Index CONSUMPTION AND REVENUE consumption per smoker Creative Destruction current smokers delivery per cigarette Equation estimates excise tax increase FEDERAL CIGARETTE EXCISE Federal excise tax Federal revenue FEDERAL TAX HIKES Federal Trade Commission Figure gain in Federal Harris Jeffrey linear regression list of NBER manufacturers milligrams Natural logarithm NBER Working Papers nicotine per cigarette number of cigarettes open circles pack on January Papers and Reprints Partial Subscription percent annually Percent of Adults Policy PREDICTING THE CONSUMPTION prevalence of smoking price of cigarettes proportion of adults real price reported REVENUE IMPACTS sales taxes Senate Finance Committee serial correlation smoke cigarettes smoking prevalence smoking rates statistical model tax-hike scenario Trade U.S. FEDERAL CIGARETTE variable wholesale prices