Adjustment in Oil-Importing Developing Countries: A Comparative Economic Analysis
The two oil price shocks of 1973SH74 and 1979SH80 have been by far the largest price movements to occur in the international economy in the postwar period. This book analyses adjustment of oil importing developing countries to those shocks with a view both to understanding an important episode in recent economic history, and to eliciting lessons that can guide successful adjustment to similar events in the future. The study develops quantitative economic methods and applies them to contemporary problems in order to yield useful insights for policy makers
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additional external financing aggregate agricultural allocation analysis assumed assumption average balance-of-payments boom capital stock changes chapter coefficients commodity composite commodities consumer counterfactual debt decline demand developing countries distribution domestic economy elasticity equation equilibrium model exchange rate exchange-rate exogenous expenditure export expansion export prices external borrowing external shocks factor figure fixed investment foreign borrowing foreign exchange foreign savings Gini coefficients government consumption gross output groups growth rate higher historical run household income impact import substitution India inflation inflow infrastructure inputs interest rates Kenya lower macroeconomic manufacturing modes of adjustment OECD oil price increases oil price shocks oil shock oil-importing partial equilibrium payments percent of GDP period petroleum policy simulations price effects private consumption production public resource mobilization reduced relative price remittances revenues rise rural sector share simulation 4a slowdown terms-of-trade Thailand Turkey urban value added variables wage rate World Bank