Adult Mortality and Consumption Growth in the Age of HIV/AIDS
World Bank, Development Research Group, Poverty Team, 2006 - AIDS (Disease) - 40 pages
The authors use a 13-year panel of individuals in Tanzania to assess how adult mortality shocks affect both short and long-run consumption growth of surviving household members. Using unique data which tracks individuals from 1991 to 2004, they examine consumption growth, controlling for a set of initial community, household and individual characteristics. The effect is identified using the sample of households in 2004 which grew out of baseline households. The authors find robust evidence that an affected household will see consumption drop 7 percent within the first five years after the adult death. With high growth in the sample over this time period, this creates a 19 percentage point growth gap with the average household. There is some evidence of persistent effects of these shocks for up to 13 years, but these effects are imprecisely estimated and not significantly different from zero. The impact of female adult death is found to be particularly severe.
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2004 households adult death adult mortality shocks age fixed effects Age of head assets baseline household members baseline respondent baseline survey biological children Bukoba children of PHHM children or parents consumption growth Crop Shock Cuddington deceased deceased deceased Economic endogenous estimates Female Death fixed effects i.e. Household & Crop Household & Death household characteristics household consumption household fixed effects IHHFE ill before death impact of adult impact of HIV/AIDS include age fixed income effects individuals Initial HH initial household fixed interaction Kagera Region Karagwe KHDS living elsewhere macroeconomic Male Death Muleba November 2006 November original household p-value panel household panel respondents Person C Person Poor Household preceding the baseline rainfall deviations recontact Regressions include age respondent on survivors Rich Household risk-sharing Sample of children Sargan Share of chronically Share of male significant spline function allowing split-off households survey surviving household members Table Tanzania variable World Bank z-score Zambia