Advances in Decision Analysis: From Foundations to Applications

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Ward Edwards, Ralph F. Miles Jr., Detlof von Winterfeldt
Cambridge University Press, Jul 23, 2007 - Psychology
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Decision analysis is a prescriptive theory that aids individuals or groups confronted with complex problems in a wide variety of contexts. By framing issues, identifying risks, eliciting stakeholder preferences, and suggesting alternative approaches, decision analysts can offer workable solutions in domains such as the environment, health and medicine, engineering and operations research, and public policy. This book is a mixture of historical and forward-looking essays on key topics in decision analysis. Part I covers the history and foundations of decision analysis. Part II discusses structuring decision problems, including the development of objectives and their attributes, and influence diagrams. Part III discusses probabilities and their elicitation and Bayes nets. Part IV discusses additive and multiplicative utilities, risk preferences, and 'option pricing' methods. Part V discusses risk analysis. Part VI puts decision analysis in a behavioral and organizational context. Part VII presents case studies of applications.
 

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Contents

Introduction
1
HISTORY AND FOUNDATIONS OF DECISION ANALYSIS
13
3The Foundations of Decision Analysis Revisited
32
A Personal Account of How It Got Started
57
Reflections on the Contributions of Ward Edwards to Decision
71
STRUCTURING DECISION PROBLEMS
81
HORA College of Business and Economics University of Hawaii
95
Developing Objectives and Attributes
104
JIANMIN JIA Faculty of Business Administration The Chinese University
286
The Engineering RiskAnalysis Method and Some Applications
302
Health Risk Analysis for RiskManagement DecisionMaking
325
DECISION ANALYSIS IN A BEHAVIORAL
351
Decision Conferencing
375
Resource Allocation Decisions
400
From Decision Analysis to the Decision Organization
419
Building Decision Competency in Organizations
451

PROBABILITIES AND BAYES NETS
129
Aggregating Probability Distributions
154
Model Building with Belief Networks and Influence Diagrams
177
A Bayesian Approach to Learning Causal Networks
202
UTILITIES
221
Extensions of the Subjective Expected Utility Model
253
PARTV RISK ANALYSIS
279
Between Decisions and Games
469
APPLICATIONS OF DECISION ANALYSIS
489
Applications of Decision Analysis to the Military Systems
539
Balancing Environmental and Operational Objectives in Nuclear
564
Perspective on Decision Analysis Applications
582
Index
611
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Page 18 - The theory of chance consists in reducing all the events of the same kind to a certain number of cases equally possible, that is to say, to such as we may be equally undecided about in regard to their existence, and in determining the number of cases favourable to the event whose probability is sought.
Page 19 - BELIEF The subject of our inquiry is the logic of partial belief, and I do not think we can carry it far unless we have at least an approximate notion of what partial belief is, and how, if at all, it can be measured. It will not be very enlightening to be told that in such circumstances it would be rational to believe a proposition to the extent of f unless we know what sort of a belief in it that means. We must therefore try to develop a purely psychological method of measuring belief.
Page 20 - Research is a scientific method of providing executive departments with a quantitative basis for decisions regarding the operations under their control.
Page 18 - We state here explicitly: The rational concept of probability, which is the only basis of probability calculus, applies only to problems in which either the same event repeats itself again and again, or a great number of uniform elements are involved at the same time.

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About the author (2007)

Ward Edwards (1927-2005) received his Ph.D. in Psychology from Harvard University. He was the recipient of many awards including the Frank P. Ramsey Award from the Decision Analysis Society of INFORMS in 1988 and the Distinguished Scientific Contributions Award in Applied Psychology from the American Psychological Association in 1996. He wrote more than one hundred journal articles and books including Decision Analysis and Behavioral Research and Utility Theories: Measurement and Applications.

Ralph F. Miles, Jr., received his Ph.D. in Physics from the California Institute of Technology and is a consultant in risk and decision analysis. He was the editor and coauthor of Systems Concepts and has written many articles. Until 1991, he worked as an engineer, supervisor, and manager in the Jet Propulsion Laboratory at the California Institute of Technology.

Detlof von Winterfeldt is Professor and Deputy Dean of the School of Policy, Planning, and Development at the University of Southern California. He is also Director of the Homeland Security Center for Risk and Economic Analysis of Terrorist Events at USC. He received his Ph.D. in Psychology from the University of Michigan. He cowrote Decision Analysis and Behavioral Research with Ward Edwards.

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