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AEMP age groups aggregate analysis approach areas base period boroughs Canberra causative matrices Census chapter choice cohort components counter-urbanisation counties decentralisation decline demand demographic change differential disaggregated distribution East North Central economic employment change employment growth equation estimated factors Figure forecast errors GENTRIF Greater London Greater Manchester headship rates household formation housing impact in-migration individual industrial input-output input-output models internal migration interregional labour force labour market labour supply MALPE matrix ment metropolitan migration and commuting migration flows mobility monitor mortality moves natural increase non-metropolitan out-migration overall parameters pattern Poisson distribution Poisson model Poisson regression popu population change population projections projection horizon regional labour Regional Science relative residential sector shift shift-share small-area social spatial Statistics structure suburbs Table target techniques Telford trends turnround unemployed urban urbanisation variables West South Central West Sussex workplace