Agent-Based Models of Energy Investment Decisions

Front Cover
Springer Science & Business Media, Mar 15, 2008 - Technology & Engineering - 113 pages
0 Reviews

As societies face the challenge of securing an efficient and environmentally sound energy supply, researchers have strived to determine the future development of energy consumption, infrastructure and technology endowment.

This book proposes a new agent-based approach to studying the development of urban energy systems. Decisions of private and commercial investors and operators are modeled using a bounded rational decision model which are parameterized by socio-economic data. The study goes on to analyze the impact of firms’ competition on technology diffusion and calculate diffusion curves for energy technologies such as solar collectors, boilers and efficiency upgrades for buildings. While making an important methodological contribution to the field of energy modelling, the author also presents practical results which will help urban planners and policy makers take more accurate decisions.

As societies face the challenge of securing an efficient and environmentally sound energy supply, researchers have strived to determine the future development of energy consumption, infrastructure and technology resources.

This book proposes a new agent-based approach to studying the development of urban energy systems. Decisions of private and commercial investors and operators are modeled using a bounded rational decision model which are parameterized by socio-economic data. The study goes on to analyze the impact of firms’ competition on technology diffusion and to calculate diffusion curves for energy technologies such as solar collectors, boilers and efficiency upgrades for buildings. While making an important methodological contribution to the field of energy modeling, the author also presents practical results, which will help policy makers and urban planners make more accurate decisions.

 

What people are saying - Write a review

We haven't found any reviews in the usual places.

Selected pages

Contents

1 Drivers of Change and Energy Models
1
12 Drivers of Change
2
123 Technological Change
3
124 Energy Firm Conduct
5
125 Climate Policy
8
13 Energy Models a Review of the State of the Art
9
14 Motivation and Research Questions
11
2 Model Design
13
343 Aggregation of Socioeconomic Information
44
35 Results
51
353 Single Decision Outcomes
55
354 Aggregated Decision Outcomes
56
36 Discussion
64
4 Commercial Actor Model
67
42 Commercial Energy Investment Decisions
68
423 Empirical Evidence
71

23 Geographical and Socioeconomic Scope
14
232 Geographical Scope
15
24 The Layer Concept
16
242 Modeling Timeframes
17
243 Technical Layer
19
244 Agent Layer
23
245 Energy Markets
26
246 Financial Incentives and Regulations
28
3 Private Actor Model
30
32 Private Energy Investment Decisions
32
322 Neoclassical Perspective
33
323 Behavioral Perspective
34
33 Bounded Rational Decision Models
36
333 Search Rules
37
334 Analysis Tools
38
335 Decision Strategies
40
34 Modeling Private Energy Investment Decisions
41
342 Aggregation of Technology and Infrastructure Information
42
43 Aggregation of the Firm
73
433 Aggregation of Business Units
75
434 Definition of Strategies and Perspectives
77
44 Decisions Model
79
443 Lowstake Structural Decisions
80
444 Highstake Structural Decisions
82
451 Impact on the Decisions of Private Agents
84
452 Impact of Competition
88
46 Discussion
92
5 Conclusions
95
53 Outlook
97
Appendix
99
A12 Agent Specific Diffusion Curves
102
A13 Results from Weighted Adding Strategy
103
A2 Commercial Actor Model
105
References
107
Copyright

Other editions - View all

Common terms and phrases

Popular passages

Page 109 - Griibler, A., Nakicenovic, N., Victor, DG, 1999. Dynamics of Energy Technologies and Global Change. Energy Policy 27, 247-280.
Page 111 - "Normal" Markets, Market Imperfections and Energy Efficiency', Energy Policy, 22 (10).
Page 110 - Modeling the cost of climate policy: distinguishing between alternative cost definitions, and long-run cost dynamics.
Page 109 - Hewett MJ (1998) Achieving energy efficiency in a restructured electric utility industry. Report prepared for Minnesotans for an Energy Efficient Economy, Center for Energy & Environment. Available at http://www.mncee.org/pdf/util_restructt.pdf on December 17st 2006. Hoffler F, Wittmann T (2007) Netting of capacity in interconnector auctions. The Energy Journal 8:113-144 Hu X (2004) Understanding generators' bidding strategies in Australia's National Electricity Market.
Page 111 - PORTER, ME (2004), Competitive Strategy. Techniques for Analyzing Industries and Competitors Free Press, New York 2004.