Aggregation, disaggregation, and the 3:1 rule in ground combat

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This report illustrates a number of basic principles about aggregation and disaggregation in combat modeling by working through the mathematics and phenomenology of a concrete example. In the example, simplified ground combat takes place in a number of sectors and subsectors within a theater. The author assumes that combat at some level of detail is dictated by the Lanchester square law then discusses whether an aggregate law, Lanchester or otherwise, applies at the next level up (that is, one with more aggregation and less detail). The answer depends on the ratios of several time scales related to information, decisions, maneuver, and the duration of a breakthrough battle. The author also discusses how the 3:1 rule does and does not apply at different levels of combat.

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Contents

la A Theater with a Network of Independent LOCs
2
DERIVING AGGREGATE MODELS FOR CASES WITHOUT REINFORCEMENT
6
MainSector Force Ratio at the BreakEven Force Ratio
13
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